How Not to Be Wrong : The Power of Mathematical Thinking
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- skarlawnshar citeretfor 2 år siden
judging a decade’s worth of mutual funds by the ones that still exist at the end of the ten years is like judging our pilots’ evasive maneuvers by counting the bullet holes in the planes that come back. - skarlawnshar citeretfor 2 år sidenthere’s no reason at all to expect the planes to have an equal likelihood of survival no matter where they get hit.
for example, in covid patients admitted to hospital with common shared symptoms, does it mean said symptoms were the most lethal?
- skarlawnshar citeretfor 2 år siden“What assumptions are you making? And are they justified?”
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