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Project Decisions: The Art and Science

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    2. What is the chanc
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    that the project will be completed on time and within budget?
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    1. How much would the project cost and how long would it take, given all the risks and uncertainties associated with it?
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    Monte Carlo analysis can help to answer these and other questions.
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    Monte Carlo analysis is a straightforward approach for dealing with complex sets of project uncertainties
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    The value of new im
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    imperfect information can be analyzed using the Bayes theorem, which is a formula that revises probabilities based on new information.
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    Decision theory offers methods to incorporate imperfect information into the analysis and calculate an expected value for i
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    the Bayes theorem is a straightforward concept.
  • herawan19har citeretfor 7 år siden
    The formula itself is really very simple;
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